The negligible horror cheapie INCARNATE (High Top/Blumhouse/Universal) is the only new wide opening of the post-Thanksgiving weekend, and with just $800K on Friday according to preliminary numbers at Deadline and a weekend that may not break $2M, even the ultra-low budget Blumhouse division may not be able to find any shred of profit from this one.
All the action was among the holdovers. MOANA (Disney Animation) easily dominated Friday with $6.5M, down 70% from the day after Thanksgiving. That was better than the 75% drop for Frozen on the parallel day, as well as the 71% decline for Toy Story 2. Moana may only drop 50% for the weekend to $28M, an excellent showing after a holiday weekend. It should easily go over $200M at the US box office, although whether it can have anything like the phenomenal legs of Frozen, which reached $400.7M, remains to be seen.
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM (Warners) fell 71% from last Friday to $5.3M, which was better than the November Harry Potter openings, all of which dropped 74-81% on the parallel day (although for some of them this was the 4th rather than the 3rd weekend). Fantastic should be at $185M by Sunday after a $19M weekend, and continues to be on pace for $225M+ in the US.
DOCTOR STRANGE (Marvel/Disney) lost 67% compared to last Friday, putting it at $1.8M, and it should have a $6.5M weekend that also puts it on track for $225M+ in the US.
TROLLS (DreamWorks Animation/20th) is fading with a Friday-to-Friday drop of 73% to $1.1M, and it should have a $4.5M weekend that moves it closer to a $150M US total, a bit better than the $130.2M for last November’s Peanuts Movie.
The more adult-oriented ALLIED (GK/Huahua/Paramount) fell 55% from last Friday to $2.2M, but that’s still only going to give it a $7.5M weekend and a running total under $30M with a $45M US total likely, not much considering its production/marketing costs of $175M+.
ARRIVAL (FilmNation/Paramount) is faring better, on the road to a $85M US total after a 55% Friday-to-Friday dip to $2M, and with worldwide costs around $125M.
HACKSAW RIDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) was down 56% from last Friday to just under $1M. It should have a $3M weekend and could reach $65M in the US.
BAD SANTA 2 (Broad Green) fell 61% from last Friday to $900K, and with a $3M weekend it might get to $20M in the US.
Note: we don’t have Friday numbers for RULES DON’T APPLY (Regency/20th), but it’s safe to assume they’re not good.
The marquee Friday limited opening was JACKIE (Fox Searchlight) which is off to a strong start that should give it a $50K weekend per-theatre average at 5 NY/LA arthouses.
In addition, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Amazon/Roadside) expanded to 156 theatres, and it should have a solid $15K per-theatre average, better than the $11K The Theory of Everything averaged at 140, and not far from the $17K 12 Years A Slave averaged at 123.