We’re in the 2-week void between Thanksgiving and the Awakening of the Force, and the low-budget KRAMPUS (Legendary/Universal) is the weekend’s only major studio arrival. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, it’s performing a tad beyond expectations with $6.25M on Friday. Given the quick burn-out for horror movies, that should mean a $13-15M weekend, nothing to get excited about but much better than the $9.7M earned by the action movie Homefront that opened wide on 2013’s post-Thanksgiving weekend. The reviews for Krampus were surprisingly OK (65% on Rotten Tomatoes), suggesting that there’s a chance for it to have more traction than is customary for its genre.
The only other semi-wide opening was the Christian-themed THE LETTERS (Freestyle) at 886 theatres, which is confined to its core audience with $200K on Friday and a weekend that won’t hit $1M.
The weekend will be won by THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 2 (Lionsgate), taking a 71% plunge from the day after Thanksgiving to $6.2M (about $500K below the first Mockingjay‘s result on the parallel day last year, which was a 73% Friday-to-Friday drop), and aiming at a $20M weekend. That still leaves it on track for $300M in the US.
THE GOOD DINOSAUR (Pixar/Disney) is having a very mild second weekend. Its $3.7M Friday is a typical 76% drop for an animated film on the parallel date (Frozen was down 75% in 2013, and Penguins of Madagascar was down 77% last year), which would give it a $17M weekend and $77M by Sunday. Dinosaur is running about 50% ahead of the flop Penguins, which would only put it at a $125M total if it stays on that track, an all-time Pixar low by far (A Bug’s Life currently has that distinction at $162.8M). It runs the risk of already being low on gas by the time the holiday kicks in, when it will have to compete with Alvin & the Chipmunks and to an extent with Star Wars.
CREED (MGM/New Line/Warners) is holding solidly, down 63% from the holiday weekend Friday to $4.3M, which should give it $14-15M for the weekend, putting it at around $63M by Sunday. It should be able to crack $100M in the US, and perhaps more if it can get some attention from SAG or the Golden Globes when they announce their nominees next week.
SPECTRE (MGM/Columbia/Sony) is still on its slow road to $200M in the US, down 69% from last Friday to $1.6M, which should mean a $5-6M weekend. THE PEANUTS MOVIE (Blue Sky/20th) is near the end of its run, down 77% from last Friday to less than $1M, on its way to a $4M weekend and a US total that won’t hit $150M. THE NIGHT BEFORE (Columbia/Sony), the only comedy around, held quite well with a 56% Friday-to-Friday drop, but with its slow start, that still meant just a $1.4M Friday and a $4M weekend, still not likely to reach $50M in the US.
Both SPOTLIGHT (Open Road) and BROOKLYN (Fox Searchlight) added a few theatres to 980 and 906 respectively, and are in virtual lockstep, with $750-850K on Friday and $2.5-3M weekends. Both are in the hunt for awards, and their ultimate success will depend on how that fares.
Spike Lee’s CHI-RAQ (Amazon/Roadside) is starting modestly at 305 theatres, where it’s heading for a quiet $4K per-theatre average for the weekend. MACBETH (Weinstein) is off to a soft start, with a $10K weekend average at 5. LEGEND (Universal) expanded to 61 theatres and is showing limited potential with a likely $4K weekend average.
CAROL (Weinstein) and THE DANISH GIRL (Focus/Universal) both remained at 4 theatres, with Carol once again considerably ahead, on track for a $35K average in its 3rd weekend, compared to $25K in the 2d for Danish. So far, Carol is also getting much more attention from the awards-giving groups.
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