KONG: SKULL ISLAND (Legendary/Tencent/Warners) had a $20M opening day according to preliminary numbers at Deadline (that’s at the high end of numbers reported elsewhere earlier in the day), including $3.7M from Thursday night. Even if that number holds, it’s little more than half the $38.4M opening day for Godzilla 3 years ago. Godzilla had a 2.4x weekend multiple, and if the same holds for Kong, it might not even reach $50M for the weekend. Worse yet was Godzilla‘s overall multiple from opening weekend, a lackluster 2.15x, which might translate into a US total for Kong that runs out of steam below $125M–and Kong has to face Beauty & the Beast next weekend. (Godzilla‘s Week 2 competition was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which had a $90.8M weekend, significantly below what Beauty is projected to do.) All of this is bad news for a huge production that was given an even more gigantic marketing campaign, with total worldwide costs that might well reach $350M. The news for Godzilla was better overseas, but not overwhelmingly: it earned 62% of its global total outside the US, and another extrapolation would give Kong a $350M worldwide total, which would mean big losses once distribution fees and retained grosses are taken into account. Of course, this is a lot of spitballing based on a single day’s box office, and perhaps Kong will be sturdier than Godzilla. But those announced plans for Godzilla 2 and Kong vs. Godzilla shouldn’t be taken for granted just yet, as Warners could have another underperforming franchise on its hands.
Perhaps the bigger surprise this weekend is the 67% drop for LOGAN (TSG/20th) from last Friday to $10.8M. That’s not an unusual decline for a superhero title (Days of Future Past fell 74%, and the two previous standalone Wolverine movies were down 76% and 69%), but with its strong reviews and overperforming opening, Logan was expected to be leggier, even with Kong in the market. Logan should have a $37M weekend, and now seems like it may end up around $225M in the US, about 40% below Deadpool.
Stability existed at the multiplex, though, in the incredibly steady GET OUT (QC/Blumhouse/Universal), down just 26% from last Friday to $5.9M. That compares to a 40% drop for the 3rd Friday of Split, and it should mean a $21M weekend, putting it at $111M by Sunday and on track for a $150M US total, one of the highest-grossing, and certainly one of the most profitable, horror movies ever.
THE SHACK (Lionsgate) dropped 52% Friday-to-Friday to $2.6M, a bit worse than the 48% slide for Heaven Is For Real‘s 2d Friday, and much worse than the 20% drop for Miracles From Heaven. The Shack should have a $9M weekend, and will push for $50M in the US.
BEFORE I FALL (Open Road) held well, but on low numbers, down 44% for the day to under $1M, and still unikely to get much above $15M in the US. The same was true, but even more so, for TABLE 19 (Fox Searchlight), down 45% from last Friday to less than $300K, and hoping for a $1M weekend and a $5M US total.
Longer runs were still paced by THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE (Warners Animation), down 30% to $1.7M for a $7.5M weekend that will put it just below $160M by Sunday, as it waits for family audiences to flock to Beauty & the Beast next week.
Oscar titles were led by HIDDEN FIGURES (20th), down 26% from last Friday to $750K, and likely to hit $170M in the US before it’s done. The Oscar bounce for MOONLIGHT (A24) was extremely short, as the winner lost roughly 1/3 of its theatres and probably won’t reach $1M for the weekend, now seeming as though its total US theatrical run will be under $30M, making it one of the lowest-grossing winners in history.
PERSONAL SHOPPER (IFC) led limited releases with a $7K per-theatre average on Friday at 4 NY/LA arthouses, but that number was swollen by Kristen Stewart’s in-theatre Q&As in LA, so it may not hold at that level for the reset of the weekend. The per-theatre for THE SENSE OF AN ENDING (CBS) was $2K in 4.
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