There was never any doubt that STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (Lucasfilm/Disney) was going to be huge. The issue was almost existential: how big was it possible for a December opening to be, when the month–which has been host to both of the biggest hits of all-time, Avatar and Titanic–had never seen a launch over $84.6M (for the first Hobbit)?
Now we know.
According to still-preliminary estimates at Deadline, Force warp-sped past all expectations with an insane $125M for Thursday night/Friday. That number is so gigantic, it’s hard to know what to do with it. It’s the biggest Friday, the biggest day of all time by a factor of more than 35% (the previous record-holder, $91.1M for the last Harry Potter, had 5 fewer hours in its opening day, since it began at midnight and Force started at 7PM on Thursday, but at those rates, Force could have spared the extra time and still taken the title). In only one day, it smashed the previous 3-day December weekend record by 50%. It will now inevitably breeze by the current opening weekend record, $208.8M for Jurassic World, and could well also pass Jurassic‘s records for Saturday ($69.6M) and Sunday ($57.2M) for a weekend over $250M.
And here’s the thing: with Christmas still days away, it’s just getting started. Avatar earned a mere 10% of its ultimate US total in its opening weekend; for Titanic, it was a tiny 5%. The expectation is that with a start like the one Force is having, it will burn through its audience much faster, but even Hobbit almost quadrupled its opening weekend before it was done. Force has gotten rave reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and should have sensational word of mouth, and the truth is that we’re on the dark side of the moon as far as expectations go. Every record is in play, and that includes the $760.5M all-time US box office record set by Avatar.
Oh, and for good measure, Force had also taken in $72.7M on Wed and Thurs in just a few early foreign territories, setting records almost everywhere, so its overseas weekend (it’s opening everywhere except China, India, Greece and a few much smaller territories) should also be massive.
The answers to the future trivia question “What else opened the same weekend as The Force Awakens?” are SISTERS (Universal) and ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP (20th). Both are counterprogramming footnotes, although not disastrous on their own terms. Sisters earned $5M on Friday, and should have a $14M weekend, comparable to the $14.7M opening for the previous Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Baby Mama, and with the meat of the holidays ahead, it should at least reach the $60M total of that one. Alvin had a $4M Friday, and should also get to $14M for the weekend, and even though it, too, will sell tickets over the holidays, that start is by far the lowest of the franchise (the previous low was $23.2M for Chipwrecked), and it may reach $75M in the end.
Holdovers were dented deeply by The Force, in most cases losing large chunks of their theatres. Everything in the Top 10 will go down over 50% from last weekend, with THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 2 (Lionsgate) on top, with $1.6M on Friday and perhaps a $5.5M weekend. Those titles that were hoping to reach milestones before they were done, like $300M for Mockingjay 2 and $200M for Spectre, may find that road tougher now. CREED (MGM/New Line/Warners), though, which earned $1.4M on Friday for a $5M weekend, should still comfortably get past $100M. THE GOOD DINOSAUR (Pixar/Disney), after a $1M Friday and a likely $4M weekend, may not get to $125M.
IN THE HEART OF THE SEA (Village Roadshow/Warners) knew it was facing a monster far worse than its killer whale in its 2d weekend, and it plunged by 72% from its opening Friday to $1M, with a weekend ahead that won’t hit $4M, a dead loss.
The only major limited opening of the weekend was the acclaimed Holocaust drama SON OF SAUL (Sony Classics), which probably didn’t have much overlap with the Star Wars audience. Nevertheless, it’s facing a soft opening, with a $9K weekend average at 3 NY/LA arthouses. THE DANISH GIRL (Focus/Universal) decided to expand to 81 theatres, and should average an OK $5500 for the weekend. THE BIG SHORT (Paramount) goes wide on Wednesday, and held at 8 theatres for the weekend, where it should average $40K. CAROL (Weinstein) stayed at 16 for a $14K average. Other awards hopefuls like SPOTLIGHT (Open Road), BROOKLYN (Fox Searchlight) and TRUMBO (Bleecker Street) lost some theatres, and will re-expand when we get deeper into Oscar season. Spotlight and Brooklyn should each average $1500 for the weekend, with Trumbo closer to $1K.
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