EARLY FRIDAY BOX OFFICE: “Deadpool” Slays “Zoolander 2,” “How To Be Single” For Valentine’s Day

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Are Americans tired of superhero movies?  There were whispers to that effect after The Avengers: Age of Ultron underperformed a bit and Fantastic Four outright flopped last year, but clearly the answer is Hell, No.  DEADPOOL (Marvel/20th) puts a new R-rated satiric spin on the genre (very carefully:  its jokes are aimed at Fox’s X-Men franchise, not the Disney-controlled Avengers), and it’s blowing away all expectations.  Early numbers at Deadline give it a massive $41.5M Friday (including $12.7M from Thursday night), a giant $11.2M higher than last year’s February record-breaker 50 Shades of Grey.  Grey ended up with $85.2M over its first 3-day weekend and $93M with Presidents Day, and Deadpool will crush those numbers with a likely $100M by Sunday and $115M by Monday.  The cherry on Fox’s cake is that due to the R rating and unusual tone, the production cost was kept down to around $60M, downright cheap for the genre, which means profits will be gigantic.

Deadpool might have seemed an unlikely hero for Valentine’s Day, but HOW TO BE SINGLE (MGM/RatPac/New Line/Warners) exists solely to be in theatres this weekend, with only moderate results.  Its $5.5M opening day should bring it to $19M by Sunday and $22M including Monday.  That’s a shadow of the $63M Valentine’s Day did with its opening 3 days in that slot 6 years ago, and not even as high as the $27.8M for About Last Night in 2014.  It’s about the same as the $18.9M for Message In A Bottle in 1999.  Single had a reasonable budget (but an expensive marketing campaign) and will hope to last in theatres long enough to break even.

The only thing sadder than a blatant cash-grab is one that fails, which brings us to ZOOLANDER 2 (Paramount), Ben Stiller’s long-belated sequel to the 2001 cult comedy.  With $4.4M on Friday, it’s only going to reach $15M by Sunday, possibly worse than the $15.5M earned by the original Zoolander 15 years ago–and that film had far cheaper production and marketing costs.  It’s also considerably below the $26.2M for Anchorman 2‘s opening weekend in December 2013, and without the engine of Christmas season, it won’t get anywhere near that comedy’s $125.2M total.

Holdovers will perform strongly this weekend due to the comparison between this week’s holiday Sunday and last week’s Super Bowl, and they’re led once again by KUNG FU PANDA 3 (DreamWorks Animation/20th), down 25% from last Friday to $3.9M and with a probable $22M by Sunday and $29M by Monday, which should put it over $100M.  It still seems unlikely to match Panda 2‘s $165.2M US total, but it could be close.

The two biggest Christmas season hits are still rolling along.  STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (LucasFilm/Disney) declined 31% from last Friday to $1.2M, and should earn an additional $8-9M by Monday, putting it at $917M.  THE REVENANT (Regency/20th) fell 36% to $1.3M on Friday and could be at $160M by Monday after a $7.5M holiday weekend.

HAIL, CAESAR! (Universal) was slammed with a 65% Friday-to-Friday plunge to $1.5M.  It could make its way to a $7.5M 4-day weekend, and won’t get much above $35M in the US, around the same level as The Ladykillers and Intolerable Cruelty.  THE CHOICE (Lionsgate) fell 50% from last Friday to $1.2M, but a strong Valentine’s Day might get it to $5-6M by Monday, still on the path to just $25M in the US.  PRIDE & PREJUDICE & ZOMBIES (Screen Gems/Sony) collapsed by 66% on Friday to $700K, and may have a $10M total by Monday after a $3M long weekend, a dead (and not undead) loss.

Michael Moore’s WHERE TO INVADE NEXT (IMG) isn’t showing much with its 300-theatre opening, headed for perhaps a $3K per theatre average over the 4-day weekend.