There’s going to be a crowd at the top of the box office this weekend, but there’s not much good news in it for anyone. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, AMERICAN MADE (Cross Creek/Universal) took Friday with $6M (almost $1M of it from Thursday night), which should give it a $15-16M weekend. However, at that number, aside from the Christmas-season (i.e, huge multiple) opening of Jack Reacher, it will be the worst wide start for a Tom Cruise starring vehicle since the glorified indie Lions For Lambs 10 years ago. Combine that with the paltry $59.5M American Made has earned after a month of international release, and the worldwide prospects seem very like the $162.1M for Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which killed off that franchise for Cruise. This isn’t good news for Cruise after the hugely disappointing box office for The Mummy, although of course Cruise has a Mission: Impossible scheduled for 2018 to halt the slide. One other note: reportedly Cross Creek shouldered the entire production cost for American Made (it’s not clear who’s paying for the marketing), so Universal has limited risk here.
KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE (MARV/20th) is quickly collapsing, down 68% from last Friday to $4.9M, far worse than the 49% Friday-to-Friday drop for The Secret Service. Golden Circle is headed for a $16-17M weekend, below the 2d weekend for Secret Service (despite a bigger opening), and not likely to get much above $100M in the US, which would be close to a 30% drop. If the international results are similar, Kingsman would quickly become a marginal franchise.
IT (New Line/Warners) is at the same level as Kingsman, with $4.8M on Friday (down 46% from last week) and a likely $16-17M weekend, but of course It is already a blockbuster hit after 4 weeks in the market, on its way to $310M or so in the US.
THE LEGO NINJAGO MOVIE (Warners Animation) fell heavily, down 56% from last Friday to $2.6M, for a $11-12M weekend. It isn’t in a league with the other LEGO movies, which registered Friday-to-Friday drops of 25% for the first LEGO Movie, and 49% for LEGO Batman. Ninjago may not get past $65M at the US box office, which means it will have to overperform internationally just to break even. (The other LEGO movies made less than 50% of their worldwide totals overseas.)
FLATLINERS (Screen Gems/Sony) might as well have been wrapped in a burlap sack and thrown into theatres, considering how hard Sony worked to keep critics away from it–understandably, given its 0% Rotten Tomatoes score. Audiences weren’t fooled, and it earned $2.2M on Friday, and will live up to its title with a $5-6M weekend. This wasn’t a micro-budgeted production, and tens of millions may be lost.
BATTLE OF THE SEXES (Fox Searchlight) had a disappointing expansion to 1213 theatres, with $1.1M on Friday for a $3.5-4M weekend. That will give it around a $3000 per -theatre average for the weekend, suggesting limited wide appeal. (The weekend may not be far off Seachlight’s $4.1M for the 1061-theatre expansion of Wild, but that was another Christmas movie, and the film stayed at that level or above for 3 straight weeks as it rolled into Oscar season.)
TILL DEATH DO US PART (Novus) opened in 550 theatres, aimed at the African-American audience, and caused little stir with a $450K Friday for a $1.5M weekend.
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