Looking at wide-release films in North America (those that play on at least 400 screens at some point), 2013 now totals $2.37 billion, down 15% from 2012 and down 8% from the prior four-year average 2009-2012. Each year-to-date period below is defined as the first Monday after New Year’s Day through the most recent Sunday.
| North American Box Office YEAR TO DATE | ||
| billions | Weeks 1-15 | |
| 2012 | $2.778 | Jan 2-Apr 15 |
| 2010 | $2.758 | Jan 4-Apr 18 |
| 2009 | $2.588 | Jan 5-Apr 19 |
| 2013 | $2.366 | Jan 7-Apr 21 |
| 2011 | $2.219 | Jan 3-Apr 17 |
In the past six weeks, 2013 is acting like a more “normal” year (exactly matching the 2009-2012 average for the comparable period). Yet the past six weeks of 2013 still lag 9% behind 2012.
| North American Box Office LAST SIX WEEKS | ||
| millions | Weeks 10-15 | |
| 2012 | $1,082 | Mar 5-Apr 15 |
| 2010 | $1,055 | Mar 8-Apr 18 |
| 2013 | $984 | Mar 11-Apr 21 |
| 2009 | $933 | Mar 9-Apr 19 |
| 2011 | $884 | Mar 7-Apr 17 |
The table below breaks the calendar year into three parts: the year to date (January through mid-April), now through the summer, and the fall/ holiday period. 2012 had an above average first and last period of the year (highlighted in green), while summer 2012 was average at best. Without any sub-par periods, however, the full 52 weeks of 2012 finished above average.
In contrast, 2010 was all over the place: an above average winter/spring, followed by a below average summer (highlighted in red) and an average fall/holiday season. All of that turbulence added up to an average year in total.
| North American Box Office BY YEAR-PART | ||||
| Jan-Apr | Apr-Aug | Sep-Dec | Jan-Dec | |
| weeks: | 1-15 | 16-35 | 36-52 | 1-52 |
| 2012 | $2.778 | $4.379 | $2.993 | $10.150 |
| 2010 | $2.758 | $4.240 | $2.813 | $9.812 |
| 2009 | $2.588 | $4.366 | $3.091 | $10.045 |
| 2013 | $2.366 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2011 | $2.219 | $4.579 | $2.696 | $9.495 |
| 2009-12 avg | $2.586 | $4.391 | $2.898 | $9.875 |
2009 was perfectly average for the first two-thirds of the year, but the holiday period (thanks to Twilight: New Moon and the first few weeks of Avatar) made all the difference, pushing the year to an above average total.
Finally, 2011 had a very good summer, but poor bookends of the year pushed the total year to a well below average mark.
2013 will need an above average summer and holiday season to push the year into an above average position. Not at all likely.
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