July 1, 2018

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7.1.2018


OPENINGS:  SICARIO: DAY OF THE SOLDADO (Black Label/Columbia/Sony) had a modest $19M start, which was better than the first Sicario‘s $12.1M (in October, after 2 weeks of limited release), but perhaps not by enough to justify the pricetag of opening in the crowded summer marketplace.  (Note that the risk here is Black Label’s, since the company financed the film, hiring Sony to handle US and some foreign distribution.)  Soldado is more front-loaded than its predecessor, with a 2.5x weekend multiple from Friday compared to 2.8x, suggesting that it won’t have the legs of Sicario, which almost quadrupled its opening.  Early international numbers are soft, with $8.4M in 55 territories.  That’s consistent (at best) with the first Sicario, which made 55% of its worldwide total in the US.

UNCLE DREW (Lionsgate) was quiet at $15.5M, and it was a particular blow that the family-aimed comedy fell 16% on Saturday, when it was hoping to pull in matinee audiences.  Production costs weren’t high, but Lionsgate gave it a fairly wide marketing push, and with limited international prospects, it isn’t looking like a win.

WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR (Focus/Universal) eased its way into wide release with an expansion to 654 theatres, where it averaged $3500 per theatre for a $2.3M weekend.  That’s a wider release than RBG has had, as that film has reached $11.5M (so far) without getting above 432 theatres, and it’s not clear how much wider Focus will bring Neighbor before it’s done.  With $7.5M to date, though, it has a solid chance of passing RBG as the year’s #1 documentary.

HOLDOVERS:  JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (Legendary/Perfect World/Universal) once again went for a round-number estimate, this time $60M, which again relies on an unusually strong Sunday projection.  Last week’s final number was down $2M from the Sunday estimate, and something similar could happen this week.  Even if the number holds, a 60% drop is much steeper than the 49% Weekend 2 decline for the first Jurassic World, and with Ant-Man & The Wasp right around the corner, Kingdom may settle in at $450M in the US, down about 30% from World.  Overseas, Kingdom is now in all major markets except Japan, and had a $56.1M weekend for $667.6M to date.  If it reaches $1.2B worldwide, that will also be in the neighborhood of a 30% drop from World.  These are very big numbers, of course, but the studio will hope for more stability from the next installment.

INCREDIBLES 2 (Pixar/Disney) dropped 43% to $45.5M in its 3rd weekend, and should pass Finding Dory as the #1 animated title in US box office history in the next week or two.  It’s still in the midst of a gradual overseas release, and it’s at $207.1M after a $44.3M weekend in 36 markets.

OCEAN’S EIGHT (Village Roadshow/Warners) has found its groove, down just 30% in its 4th weekend to $8M, and poised for a $130M+ US total.  Things are a bit less buoyant overseas, where it’s at $95M after a $13.8M weekend in all major territories except Spain, Italy and Japan, but the latter market was the #1 international territory in the world for Thirteen, so it may make up ground there.

TAG (New Line/Warners), the only adult comedy in the market, is holding well with a 32% Weekend 3 drop.  However, that still put the weekend at $5.6M, and Tag will have difficulty passing $55M in the US.  Things are slow overseas, where it has $7.4M after a $3.7M weekend in 37 territories.  Game Night, the obvious point of comparison for Tag, ended at $69M in the US and $48.4M overseas.

DEADPOOL 2 (20th) continues to hold, down 34% in Weekend 7 to $3.5M, on its way to $315M in the US.  It’s also at $408.7M overseas after a $2.8M weekend.  At a $730M worldwide total, it will be down about 7% from the first Deadpool.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The Indian-language SANJU (FIP) opened in 356 theatres with a solid $7200 per-theatre average, giving it $2.6M for the weekend.  (Not surprisingly, it was a wider phenomenon in India, where it opened at $21.6M.)  LEAVE NO TRACE (Bleecker Street) averaged a moderate $24K in a 9-theatre opening.  The year of the documentary continued with a $33K per-theatre average for 3 IDENTICAL STRANGERS (Neon) at 5.  HEARTS BEAT LOUD (Gunpowder & Sky) expanded to 170 with a $2200 average.  DAMSEL (Magnolia) averaged $2300 at 31.  BOUNDARIES (Sony Classics) widened to 17 and averaged $2900.

NEXT WEEKEND:  THE FIRST PURGE (Blumhouse/Universal) will launch mid-week with a patriotic July 4 start.  On Friday, it’s joined by ANT-MAN & THE WASP (Marvel/Disney).  Limited releases include Sundance title SORRY TO BOTHER YOU (Annapurna).



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."