OPENINGS: RISEN (Affirm/Columbia/Sony) topped the weekend’s arrivals with an $11.8M start that was above the $11.4M for War Room and the $9.2M for God’s Not Dead, although it was well below Heaven Is For Real‘s $22.5M. The Christian genre has tremendous multiples–both God’s and War Room ended up at 6x their opening weekends–and Risen has a solid month to itself before the same studio’s Miracles From Heaven goes after the same audience. The only downside is that they have negligible foreign value, with even Heaven below $10M outside the US.
THE WITCH (A24) held better in the course of the weekend than might have been expected, almost tripling its Friday to a $8.7M total. It’s still unlikely to get much over $20M, but with an acquisition cost of $1M and what is reportedly a very low marketing budget (under $10M, perhaps well under), it could still leg its way to a small profit, and there’s a smaller chance that it could challenge Ex Machina as the new studio’s biggest hit to date at $25.4M.
RACE (Focus/Universal) showed little speed with a $7.3M launch, and with larger costs with The Witch, it’s more likely to stay in red ink even with $20M or so in the US.
THE LADY IN THE VAN (Sony Classics) expanded to semi-wide release at 540 theatres, and had an OK per-theatre average of $2800 (below the wider releases, which were at $3100-4200) for a $1.5M total. It’s better, however, than the widest weekend of the same studio’s Grandma, which needed 1061 theatres for a $1.5M weekend.
ZOOTOPIA (Disney) doesn’t open in the US for 2 more weeks, but it’s already earned $39M overseas after a $31.2M weekend in 22 territories.
HOLDOVERS: None of the newcomers, of course, came close to touching the 2d weekend of DEADPOOL (20th), which held well considering its massive start (and the lack of a holiday Sunday), down 59% to $55M. That gives it $235.4M in the US, which should ultimately reach around $350M, while overseas it earned another $85.3M in most of the world (Japan is still to come, and it’s not clear if the anarchic adventure will have a run in China) for a total so far of $256.3M. Produced at a relatively low investment for its genre, it’s likely to hit $700-800M worldwide, a huge profit center for Fox (not so much for Marvel, which did not coproduce Deadpool, but is strictly a rightsholder).
KUNG FU PANDA 3 (DreamWorks Animation/20th) dropped just 37% from last weekend to $12.5M, although its $117.1M US total suggests that it will still end up as the lowest-grossing Panda domestically. Overseas, it had a $7.2M weekend and is at $162.6M in just 7 markets ($137M of that amount from China alone), with the bulk of its international business still to come.
Coming off Valentine’s Day weekend, HOW TO BE SINGLE (RatPac/MGM/New Line/Warners) fell 54% to $8.2M for a $31.8M US total that probably won’t reach $50M. Overseas, it earned $10.9M in 50 territories, putting it at $24.1M, on track for a similar total.
ZOOLANDER 2 (Paramount) collapsed by 60% from its awful opening to $5.5M and $23.7M to date, headed for an ugly $35M on production/marketing costs that may have been as high as $150M. It’s at $17.1M overseas, so there are no miracles coming there either.
A pair of veterans are subsiding. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (Lucasfilm/Disney) was down 38% to $3.8M for an awesome $921.6M in the US, plus $1.12B overseas. THE REVENANT (Regency/RatPac/20th) dropped 42% to $3.8M, giving it $165.1M in the US, plus (after a $8.6M weekend) $204.1M overseas–with the chance of an Oscar bump worldwide over the next couple of weeks, especially if the film itself and not just Leonardo DiCaprio wins.
LIMITED RELEASE: The US release of THE MERMAID (Sony) will never approach the record-breaking $419M it’s earned in China, but it had a solid start in 35 theatres with an excellent $29K per-theatre average. BUSCO NOVIO PARA MI MUJER (Lionsgate) was much more prosaic with a $2500 average at 357 theatres. SON OF SAUL (Sony Classics) expanded to 75 theatres with a mild $1100 average. TOUCHED BY FIRE (Roadside) didn’t manage a $1000 average at 67. Foreign Film nominee EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT (Oscilloscope) averaged a fair $17K at 3 NY/LA arthouses.
NEXT WEEKEND: Deadpool is likely to keep reaping the benefits of a slow late winter schedule, with the next sacrificial offerings sports tale EDDIE THE EAGLE (20th), which is having an unusual “sneak preview” this afternoon, fantasy GODS OF EGYPT (Summit/Lionsgate) and crime thriller TRIPLE 9 (Open Road).
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