OPENINGS: According to published reports, Emma Watson’s deal on BEAUTY & THE BEAST (Disney) starts at a $3M base, but rises to $15M if the film reaches around $750M worldwide. It seems like Watson can safely buy any Lamborghini that’s caught her eye, because Beauty is a global blockbuster. In the US, Disney’s $170M weekend estimate may actually be conservative: the film dipped 2% on Saturday (frontloaded for a giant family film, playing more like a sequel), and should hold very well on Sunday, where Disney is estimating a 31% drop, but movies like Toy Story 3, Despicable Me 2, and Finding Dory went down 14-24%. Overseas, it’s at $180M and hasn’t yet opened in territories like France, Australia, and especially Japan, where Finding Dory earned $66M. A $1B worldwide total is certainly within reach.
A very mild bit of counterprograming came from the ultra-low-budget bloodbath THE BELKO EXPERIMENT (BH Tilt/Orion/Universal), which is testing the Blumhouse low-rent model with a $4.1M opening that may not get it to $10M in theatres.
HOLDOVERS: KONG: SKULL ISLAND (Legendary/Tencent/Warners) had a fair 53% drop to $28.9M in its 2d weekend, much better than Godzilla‘s 67% plunge (although it assumes a very strong Sunday, so we’ll see if that number holds up). It’s still performing at a lower level than that other monster (Godzilla‘s 2d weekend was $30.9M), and seems to be heading for a $175M US total. Overseas, it had a $38.5M weekend for a $149.2M total, with China and Japan yet to open. Those 2 territories will probably be the difference between breakeven and a modest profit (Godzilla earned $107.5M in the 2 of them combined), depending on how they perform, but in any case this is a wildly expensive franchise play for Warners that seems to be B level at best.
LOGAN (TSG/20th) declined 54% in the US to $17.5M, and should reach $215M. Overseas, it’s at $340M after a $31.5M weekend ,with Japan still on the horizon (not a particularly big X-Men market). If it reaches $600M worldwide, it will be the #3 title in the franchise, behind Deadpool‘s $783.1M and Days of Future Past‘s $747.9M, although considerably less expensive than the latter.
GET OUT (Blumhouse/QC/Universal) continued to enjoy championship holds, down 36% in its 4th weekend to $13.2M. It will pass Split‘s $136.9M by next week to become Blumhouse’s #1 movie ever in the US–which, yes, means that Blumhouse has had the 2 biggest films of its history within the same 3 months. Get Out has just started its international campaign with $2.9M in 9 markets.
THE SHACK (Lionsgate) was down 39% to $6.1M, still on track for $55M in the US, but falling faster than Miracles Can Happen, which slipped 25% in its 3rd weekend.
THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE (Warners Animation) didn’t feel much pain from the arrival of Beauty, down 38% to $4.7M, and on its way to $175M in the US. However, things aren’t nearly as bright overseas, where it’s at $120M after a $2.4M weekend in 57 markets. That compares to a $211.4M international total for The LEGO Movie, and while LEGO Batman will be moderately profitable, it’s another problematic franchise for Warners.
LIMITED RELEASE: T2: TRAINSPOTTING (TriStar/Sony) had a solid start with a $36K per-theatre average at 5. Terrence Malick’s SONG TO SONG (Broad Green) was less tuneful, averaging $13.5K at 4, which is even lower than the $15K opening weekend average for his Knight Of Cups, a film that didn’t reach $600K in the US. THE SENSE OF AN ENDING (CBS) expanded blandly to 282 with a $1700 average. THE LAST WORD (Bleecker Street) was also lagging with an expansion to 94 that generated a $2K average. PERSONAL SHOPPER (IFC) widened to 35 with a $4500 average.
NEXT WEEKEND: A grab-bag of offerings that includes the big-budget outer space horror movie LIFE (Columbia/Sony), R-rated comedy CHIPS (Warners) and kiddie reboot POWER RANGERS (Lionsgate). The major limited release is WILSON (Fox Searchlight), which didn’t cause much of a stir when it premiered at Sundance.