Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 9.29.2019

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OPENINGS:  ABOMINABLE (Pearl/DreamWorks/Universal) seized a weekend on the calendar that had a dearth of new children’s movies (and with 2 weeks until The Addams Family opens), and pushed it to a fair $20.9M opening.  However, with roughly $150M in costs, it will need international help to reach profit, and since weekend results were at an unenthusiastic $8.8M in 30 markets (it has a $10.2M international total with a few early openings), that means China.  This isn’t a surprise, since Abominable isn’t just set in China, much of its budget was funded by the Chinese studio Pearl, and we’ll see next week if the strategy worked.

HOLDOVERS:  DOWNTON ABBEY (Focus/Universal) was only moderately front-loaded, down 53% in its 2nd weekend to $14.5M, and possibly on its way to $85M in the US alone.  In addition, it has $48.6M overseas after a $10.2M weekend in 36 territories, and with $75M in total costs, it’s going to be extremely profitable.

HUSTLERS (STX) is proving to have great word of mouth, down a mere 32% to $11.5M in its 3rd weekend, and on track to get past $100M in the US.  It also has $14.8M in overseas revenue.

IT: CHAPTER TWO (New Line/Warners) dropped 39% to $10.4M in its 4th weekend, and should reach $215M in the US, which would be down about 35% from the first It.  Overseas, it’s at $223.5M after an $11M weekend in 78 markets, and is headed for a similar decline.

AD ASTRA (Bona/20th/Disney) fell 47% to $10.M in its 2nd weekend and may get past $55M in the US.  That won’t be enough to cover $175M+ in costs, and overseas it’s at $53.5M after an $18M weekend in 50 territories, not yet including China.  Once again, its finances include Chinese investment, this time through Bona, and its China run will determine its fate.

RAMBO: LAST BLOOD (Lionsgate) lost 55% to $8.6M in its 2nd weekend, and might make it to $50M in the US.  Overseas revenues thus far are at $13.6M.

GOOD BOYS (Good Universe/Universal) has been a genuine sleeper hit of the late summer into fall, down just 22% to $2M in its 7th weekend, and on its way to $85M in the US.  It also has $23.7M overseas.

THE LION KING (Disney) is winding down its run with a decline of 40% to $1.6M in its 11th weekend, for a US total that may hit $545M, #11 on the all-time list.  Overseas, it’s at $1.1B, putting its worldwide total as the 7th highest of all time.

ANGEL HAS FALLEN (Millenium/Lionsgate) continued its sturdy run, down 36% to $1.5M in its 6th weekend for a US total that should get past $70M.  It also has $56.7M overseas.

Remarkably, the biggest indie hit to come out of this year’s Sundance Film Festival (currently only behind the big-studio Fighting With My Family) has become the under-the-radar THE PEANUT BUTTER FALCON (Roadside), which may pass $20M in the US, and which dropped a tiny 11% to $900K in its 8th weekend.

LIMITED RELEASE:  JUDY (Roadside) chose an unusual release pattern, opening in a 461-theatre run that was just below wide release, a strategy we last saw with The Dead Don’t Die, which opened at 613 with $2.5M and a $4100 per-theatre weekend average.  Judy had a solid start with $3.1M, a $6700 weekend per-theatre average, and will hope to expand beyond its base.  WHERE’S MY ROY COHN (Sony Classics) widened to 12 theatres with a $5K average, and MILES DAVIS: BIRTH OF COOL (Sony Classics) averaged $1700 at 31.  FIRST LOVE (WGUSA) opened at 2 with a $12K average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  JOKER (BRON/Village Roadshow/DC/Warners) is the only wide release.  Awards season contenders include the limited releases LUCY IN THE SKY (Fox Searchlight/Disney) and PAIN AND GLORY (Sony Classics).  In addition, DOLEMITE IS MY NAME (Netflix) will follow the usual pattern of that service’s theatrical releases, running in a few hundred theatres nationwide, since the larger chains won’t permit Netflix productions, with unreported box office and availability via streaming a few weeks later.